Predicting Aperture 4.0/X
[UPDATED on Feb 5, thanks to Whitney Dunn in the comments below! I had calculated based on the Aperture 3.2 release being the present, which threw everything off by several months. Oops!]
One of the first things I read this morning was a tweet from @ScottBourne that read “About Aperture 4.0”, which woke me up far faster than coffee ever could! However it wasn’t an announcement, but simply a prediction. Ah, I can relax now.
I read his article on photofocus.com with interest, and he has some encouraging thoughts on the future of the app (all of which I’ve been saying as well, but it’s nice to know I’m not the only one!). His historical timeline, however, is off. I guess Scott posted before his morning coffee, didn’tcha buddy ;-) It got me curious of the actual timeline though, and so I broke out Numbers to start plotting it, and before I knew it I was completely geeking out on charts and tables in Numbers. Hey, we can’t look at images all day long!
I share this here only because I wasted spent so much time on this this morning, and figured someone should see it other than me!
All data is from the Wikipedia entry on Aperture, so if there are any mistakes, I blame whoever edited it last :) The way I did this is I assigned a “value” to each release; 1.0 for a major release like v1.0, 0.1 for a dot release like v1.1, and 0.01 for a maintenance release like v1.1.1. I however gave v.1.5 a score of 0.8 because frankly, 1.5 could have been 2.0. With actual dates and calculated days-since-release, I was able to make the fancy little chart you see above.
The short summary is:
- Aperture 1.0 to 1.5: 10 months
- Aperture 1.5 to 2.0: 16.5 months
- (Aperture 1.0 to 2.0: 26.5 months)
- Aperture 2.0 to 3.0: 24 months
- Aperture 3.0 to present: 20 24 months
But the chart is much more fun to look at.
So when do we “predict” Aperture 4.0 or X or whatever it may be called? My Numbers skills aren’t that good to draw the prediction for me, but if you call the 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0 the only major releases and then the average is simply 25.25 24.8 months, so that’d put it right around five months from now, or this June within a month or less! If you want to call 1.5 a major release, then the average drops to 16.8 months in which case we’re several months overdue.
Scott predicted between February and October of this year (2012); I’ll go more aggressive and predict before June 2012. Revised data now points to Feb or March of 2012, actually. Also it’s been pointed out that most releases are on a Tuesday. The guy who runs TheApertureBlog predicted on twitter that it’d be this tuesday. We shall see!
So there you have it… the results of a totally wasted morning. If you spot any errors, please do let me know.